Burnham excludes more offences from early prison release plan
New exclusions from early-release changes expose a prison system already running close to its limits.
People held two to a cell built for one are living with the cost of a prison system that ministers say is close to full.
On 30 August, Prime Minister Andy Burnham added manslaughter, death by dangerous driving, child-death offences, killing an emergency worker, indecent assault and historic child-sex offences to the list excluded from new automatic-release changes. Burnham said he had pushed the policy ‘to the very limits of what’s possible without risking the prison system collapsing within months’.
A system run at the limit
The government says adult male prisons are operating at 98% capacity. At HMP Leeds, inspectors found most men sharing cramped single cells, with restricted time out of cell and limited access to work, education and resettlement help.
That is what sits behind the capacity figures. Charlie Taylor, HM Chief Inspector of Prisons, said prisoners being denied regular purposeful activity had contributed to rising drug use and violence, alongside continued high self-harm.
England and Wales held 85,858 people in prison on 30 June, including 15,386 people on remand. Nearly one in five prisoners are remanded or unsentenced, while recalls to custody accounted for nearly a quarter of prison admissions in 2023-24.
Longer sentences, fewer alternatives
The immediate row is about release dates, but the pressure was built over decades. Average custodial sentences for indictable offences rose from 16 months in 1993 to 22.5 months by June 2024, while community orders fell from 26% of disposals in 1996 to 6%.
Successive governments also failed to keep usable capacity growing. The independent capacity review says operational capacity fell between 2012 and 2025 because prisons closed and ageing infrastructure failed, even as the prison population rose by more than 40,000 people since 1993.
Building has not solved the gap. The review put the remaining cost of the 20,000-place programme at up to £10.1bn, with each remaining place costed at £600,000 in March 2025.
Victims cannot be an afterthought
Bereaved families’ and victims’ organisations backed the new exclusions, saying: ‘The problem of prison capacity does not alter that underlying need for public protection.’ They are right that changed release dates require proper notification, safety planning and enforceable licence conditions.
But exclusions do not create cells. The progression model is due to begin in October, with estimated releases phased through June 2027, while people remain on licence and can be recalled. The Sentencing Review says high-profile press coverage can distort public understanding of sentencing, but it identifies no single cause for overcrowding.
Longer sentences, recalls, remand delays and abandoned capacity plans have filled the estate. The bill for pretending otherwise is £600,000 for every new place.
